Salvini's Decline and Its Impact on Meloni's Re‑Election Prospects

Matteo Salvini, once celebrated as “the captain” for steering the League from a regional northern force to a national far‑right party, now faces a steep loss of support. Polls show the League at just 6% of the vote, a stark contrast to the 34% achieved at the 2019 European elections. This decline has accelerated since February, when former ally Futuro Nazionale launched a splinter group that outpaces the League on the right.

Salvini’s rise began in 2013, when he transformed the League’s focus to a national platform that called for leaving the euro and adopting a zero‑tolerance stance on migration. Serving as transport minister under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, he oversaw a period of rail delays and a stalled bridge project linking Sicily and Calabria. These governance challenges have dented his reputation, while inflation and fuel price concerns have shifted public priorities away from the migration issue that once defined his appeal.

Analysts from YouTrend, such as Lorenzo Pregliasco, note that after more than a decade in power, the League’s anti‑establishment image has softened. Repeated spells in government since 2018 have blunted its outsider allure, leading to a natural decline in voter enthusiasm. Within the coalition, this downturn is pulling down the other parties, including Brothers of Italy and Forza Italia, as the coalition trails the centre‑left in recent polling.

Internal tensions are rising. Party officials report that meetings have become fraught, with members openly criticizing Salvini. The League is split between loyalists and those urging a return to its original focus on local northern communities. While no clear successor has stepped forward publicly, figures such as regional governor Luca Zaia and Friuli‑Venezia Giulia head Massimiliano Fedriga are mentioned as possible future leaders. Fedriga has suggested reforming regional autonomy, emphasizing that slogans alone no longer win voter confidence.

Speculation about Salvini stepping down before the next election is growing. He recently won a party vote to become the League’s mayoral candidate for Milan, a move that could signal an exit from national leadership. Proposals to reinstall him as interior minister—a role he previously held and used to boost anti‑immigrant support—have received a lukewarm response. Migration no longer ranks as a top concern for Italians, who now prioritize inflation and economic stability amid the wider fallout from the Iran war.

These dynamics have tangible effects on the governing coalition’s electoral outlook. The coalition’s poll numbers lag behind the centre‑left, and the League’s slide threatens to further erode Meloni’s re‑election chances in the vote scheduled for next year. Without the League’s robust voter base, the coalition may struggle to secure a parliamentary majority, opening the possibility for new alliances or a shift in the balance of power.

In summary, Salvini’s waning influence reflects a broader transformation within Italy’s right‑wing camp. The combination of internal party fractures, a changing public agenda, and the loss of a charismatic anti‑immigration figure is reshaping the political landscape. As the 2026 election approaches, the Meloni government faces a critical test: it must either revitalize its right‑wing partners or risk ceding ground to the centre‑left.